Off topic: CNN can't be trusted with raw data

Having spent some time yesterday going over ocean buoy data and observing tsunamis, I was surprised to hear about a "27 foot" tsunami seen in the open ocean. The source of this amazing rumor is, of all places, CNN:

[CNN] Transcript

JERAS: OK, so these are the detection which are out there in the Pacific Ocean. And you can see the flashing ones. These are active. These are the ones that we're watching. And there's Hawaii right from there. About 140 miles away from the Hawaiian island, we have a Bouie out there and this is what it is showing here. There you can see the line and notice this big drop down here. We have this big drop. This is about a nine-meter drop.

...

SANCHEZ: But what we can say is, tell me if I'm wrong, there is a tsunami there and it was just detected that it caused a 27-foot drop.

FRANKEL: Yeah, we recoded the tsunami passing that buoy, yes.

That's the essential part of the "reporting", the gist of which is that CNN claims a nine meter tsunami was detected in deep water. There's just so much wrong with this I don't know where to begin:

  • The wave is two orders of magnitude larger than an open-water tsunami
  • The wave is an order of magnitude shorter than a tsunami
  • The wave precedes the expected arrival time of the tsunami by two hours

NDBC Buoy 51407

(The tsunami arrival time was estimated no earlier than 11:05 HST (for Hilo), which is 21:05 UTC -- two hours later than this "tsunami". CNN didn't catch on.)

Now there is something very important about this data, the reason why I added the data "dots" to the graph (on top of the lines). Right when the "tsunami" occured, the reporting frequency increased from 15 minutes to 1 minute, as you see by the density of the data points. Clearly, this "tsunami" is an artifact of measurement. To speculate, I think it is most likely they are catching ordinary ocean swells (or the integral over several of them, over 1 minute). There must be some sort of averaging algorithm that removes this short-scale variation. Most of the data, such as the 1-minute data featured in yesterday's blog, does not have such spikes. And in fact this dataset, over the last hour I've graphed, is perfectly flat as well.

To conclude, here is the rest of this buoy's data for the evening (postdating the CNN report), and again with the very obvious outliers excised. In the final, adjusted version, you can see the actual tsunami arriving right on schedule, around 21:10 UTC (11:10 HST).

By the way, take a look at this amateur video of the tsunami at Hilo (where it is amplified by the bay). It causes a small river to suddenly reverse direction.

Off-topic -- following the Pacific tsunami, with buoys

I hope everyone affected is aware of the massive tsunami in progress right now:

[NOAA] Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

I was curious as to how these giant waves are being tracked. Satellite-base radar can measure sea level over large areas simultaneously, but (says wikipedia) this data takes days to process. But there is a network of NOAA buoys anchored in the open ocean, which send over measurements in real time. In particular they send real-time sea levels. Normally they are measured at 15-minute intervals, but under tsunami "event" conditions this is accelerated to up to once every 15 seconds, which gives surprisingly rich profiles of the waves. I've graphed a few of them -- these are up-to-the-minute measurements (as of the time I'm writing this):

[NOAA] National Data Buoy Center

It seems you can resolve sea level variations to centimeter precision. And quite a lot of features there are. The biggest feature is the very large, slow tide variations, over timescales of hours. We can ignore this. The earthquake starts at 06:34 UTC (marked with a red line): almost immediately you see significant waves in the closest buoy. This is not the tsunami itself -- it was much too soon. I believe this is the direct shock wave of the earthquake, at the location of the buoy (waves travel much faster through rock than water). I even see a bit of this in the second buoy (at 07:00), which is thousands of miles away!

The tsunami itself looks like a wavetrain, with a huge solitary Gaussian wave in the front, and a mess of smaller, interfering waves following behind. These take hours to reach the buoys, and are highlighted in gray. According to wikipedia it should be moving at ~500 mph with wavelengths of hundreds of miles. This is consistent with these wave profiles: the Gaussian peaks have a full-peak width of about 18 minutes. The maximum amplitudes are about 15-25 cm.

Fuel cell hype

I don't get it.

Manufacturer Bloom Energy Siemens
Fuel Natural gas Natural gas
Energy conversion Electrochemical Thermal
Tech Solid oxide fuel cell Combined-cycle gas turbine
Model ES-5000 SGT5-8000H
Unit size 100 kWe 570 MWe
(375 MWe Brayton + 195 MWe Rankine)
Thermodynamic efficiency 52% 60%
Cost/kW $7,000-$8,000/kWe $753/kWe

The combustion turbine figures are for a power plant in Bavaria, estimated at €450 million (total) for 800 MWe:

[Power-Technology.com] Irsching Siemens Gas Turbine, Germany

[Siemens] Gas Turbine SGT5-8000H

The fuel cell costs are being reported as $700,000 - $800,000 for a 100 kWe module:

[Los Angeles Times] Bloom Energy reveals new 'Bloom Box' fuel cell technology

[Forbes] The Economics of Bloom Energy's 'Breakthrough' Fuel Cell

[GreenTechMedia] Bloom Energy Revealed

[MarketWatch] Bloom Energy raises hopes - and questions

[Bloom Energy] ES-5000 Energy Server Data Sheet

(In a minor inconsitency, "GreenTechMedia" reports the efficiency as 48%, whereas Forbes says 50-55%. I use the figure derived from the datasheet numbers, as 52%.)

Update: Can anyone clarify the configuration of Irsching unit #5 (my gas turbine example)? I'm sure it's simple, but I can't reconcile the MW capacities between my two sources.

Tritiumlight vigil

In anticipation of the act of economic violence likely to be committed tomorrow, this blog is observing a candlelight vigil. As the Vermont politicians are turning off the lights in their state, so this blog turns off its virtual lights. In place of ordinary candles, which have an unfortunate tendency to leak wax and start fires, the editor of the Capacity Factor raises these inextinguishable lights:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tritium_illumination

(Contents: 1.2 trillion picocuries tritium).

(Update: The vote was 26-4 to close VY. I've restored the white blog background for readability).

Vermont senate president seeks to close Yankee; vote next week

Just a heads-up:

[VtDigger] Senate leadership announces push for shut down of Vermont Yankee in 2012

The Vermont Senate will vote next week on whether to authorize the continued operation of Vermont Yankee, the 38-year-old nuclear power plant in Vernon, through 2032.

...

The Senate has asked nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen to give a report to the Legislature next week on the 80 requirements “that the audit committee needed to meet in order to continue operation in a reliable fashion.”

I noticed one of Senate President Shumlin's key arguments for shuttering VY is that its electricity is too expensive:

  • The corporation is offering Vermont utilities a third of the power it provides to the state now at a rate of 6.1 cents per kilowatt hour, 50 percent more than the current rate;

Indeed, that is true. Shumlin cannot let his state pay so much as 6 c/kWh for clean electricity; he's out to save money for the ratepayers of Vermont. Why make them waste 6 c/kWh on expensive nuclear, when, as Shumlin advocates (see bill below), they can pay only 30 c/kWh for cheap solar power?

[2009 H. 446] An act relating to renewable energy and energy efficiency. (PDF)

[2009 H. 446] Rollcall Vote Detail


Fuel maneuvering in Vermont Yankee. Credit: Mark Wilson/Boston Globe

The $9 million turtle

A California solar plant has been scaled back over a small population of desert tortoises:

BrightSource Energy on Thursday plans to submit a new design to regulators that shrinks the size of the 4,000-acre Ivanpah Solar Energy Generating Station by 12 percent, reducing the number of desert tortoises that must be relocated and avoiding an area of rare plants.

The portion of the project that would most affect wildlife will be cut by 23 percent. The power plant’s electricity generation would fall from 440 megawatts to 392 megawatts.

[...]

Surveys have found 25 desert tortoises on the site, which is about 45 miles south of Las Vegas.

[NYT] BrightSource Alters Solar Plant Plan to Address Concerns Over Desert Tortoise

A couple of observations. First, they weren't in danger of being killed, just relocated to another part of the desert. Second, this species is not even endangered.

By a back-of-the-envelope calculation, the 48 MWe capacity that was removed, at California rates and an assumption of 20% capacity factor and a 20-year lifespan, would have yielded electricity worth $227 million. Let's say this regulatory action represents a balanced assessments of tradeoff, rather than environmental absolutism. Then it represents a valuation that: the damage of moving one tortoise exceeds ($227M / 25) = $9 million.

German solar industry protesting subsidy cuts

Apparently it's unfair that solar electricity will get a price up to nine times higher than market rates, thanks to mandated government price fixing. It's unfair because they currently get eleven times market rate, and the reduction will hurt the industry.

[WSJ] Solar Stocks Drop as Germany Proposes Solar Subsidy Cut

NEW YORK -- Shares of solar stocks dropped Wednesday after the German government said it's proposing a 15% cut on subsidies to solar-power providers.

The solar industry is actually planning protests over this:

[Bloomberg] German Solar Industry Protests Cuts Amid Merkel Policy Deadlock

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s solar industry called for countrywide protests against Environment Ministry plans to slash subsidies, amid mounting frustration at the uncertainty caused by government deadlock over how far and fast to make the cuts.

As many as 10,000 workers from factories that make solar- power panels and their control systems will tomorrow protest Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen’s planned cuts, the BSW industry lobby group said. Companies including Solarworld AG, Q- Cells SE and First Solar Inc. will participate, it said.

“The 60,000 people working in the growing market for photovoltaic panels demand that the government put a stop to the clear cuts for solar support,” Carsten Koernig, head of the Berlin-based BSW, said in an e-mailed statement.

The details are this: as of 2010, the German government mandates a subsidy of €305/MWh and €422/MWh for, respectively, ground-sited and rooftop solar panels. This compares with with the market rates for ordinary power plants, which are €39/MWh for baseload (the majority of electricity), and €50/MWh for peaking power, averaged over 2009. (Well the first 3/4th of 2009 - 4Q data is not yet available.) Nuclear plants are an exception as always: they will effectively get less than market rates, under proposed legislation which will Robin Hood away most nuclear power revenue to wind & solar corporations.

Sources:

[Solarbuzz] Fast Facts / Germany

[RWE] German Electricity Prices

Summary graph:

I should clarify two points.

First, the market rate for electricity is not the same as what end-users buy, but what power plants sell. For instance, 2007 retail rates averaged $84/MWh and 212/MWh (about €61/MWh and €154/MWh), for industrial and residential users. So industry pays nearly market rates, but households pay considerably more for distribution. (I don't have the exact breakdown -- here's the American version, but it is very different.) This is a point on which solar advocates often prevaricate - they almost always compare with household retail rates, rather that an apples-to-apples comparison with other power plants. (Of course the the exact same distribution costs apply to solar panels as real power plants, because are they completely tied in to the grid both buying and selling; actually the true costs should be much higher because of their intermittency, which requires 100% backup reserve.)

[IEA] Key World Energy Statistics 2007

Second, the solar subsidies are not constant: I've extrapolated the current rates from the initial rates (in 2004) and the reduction rate (5% and 6.5% annual, respectively, rooftop and ground). The rates were actually even higher a few years ago - €574/MWh and €475/MWh.

This second point is also a point of pervarication for solar shills. For instance, Joe Romm screeches that the subsidy cuts are 44% (when they are 15%). In fact, as the Bloomberg source clarifies, this is the sum of the subsidy cut with the accumulated 5% reductions (proscribed by the original law) since 2004. It is "true" that after the 15% cut, obscene solar subsidies will be 44% lower than in 2004, but clearly this isn't an honest choice of numbers.

Although it's too early to celebrate, I hold out hope that these thieves will meet their reckoning the same way they did in Spain. You recall that similar subsidy restrictions there were enough to completely destroy Spain's solar market last year, although not before they burned away $26 billion.

Bill Gates on energy

If you haven't found out already, programmer philantropist Bill Gates has taken up writing a blog, The Gates Notes. Among other trivialities like his $10 billion donation to vaccine research, he has become very interested in energy and climate change. Here's on of his essays I particularly like:

[Bill Gates] Why We Need Innovation, Not Just Insulation

One of the reasons I bring this up is that I hear a lot of climate change experts focus totally on 2020 or talk about how great it is that there is so much low hanging fruit that will make a difference.

This mostly focuses on saving a little bit of energy, which by itself is simply not enough. The need to get close to zero emissions in key sectors almost never gets mentioned. The danger is people will think they just need to do a little bit and things will be fine.

If CO2 reduction is important, we need to make it clear to people what really matters – getting close to zero.

With that kind of clarity, people will understand the need for the goal to be zero and begin to grasp the scope and scale of innovation that is needed.

(You know it's good because it drove Joe Romm into hysterics.)

Gates also recommends a few energy books (thoughts?); he is particularly interested by Vaclav Smil of Univ. of Manitoba, and also David MacKay's book.

Dealing with nuclear waste - the American way

[Wall Street Journal] DOJ Wants More Lawyers For Nuclear-Waste Litigation

The president's budget proposal, released Monday, seeks an additional $11.4 million for the Justice Department to devote to nuclear-waste litigation. That increase would more than double the money the department has allocated for the government's legal defense.

The department said nuclear power utilities have filed 72 cases that seek in excess of $50 billion in damages for the government's delay in accepting spent nuclear fuel. The government was required by law to begin collecting the waste by January 1998.

"Defending theses cases will involve intensive resources due to their complexity and high financial stakes," the Justice Department said in a written summary of its budget proposal. "Without the requested additional funding, the government's posture will be severely weakened potentially leading to massive Treasury losses."

(Under current policy, nuclear operators pay a fee of 0.1 c/kWh for the federal nuclear waste fund, which adds up to $25 billion so far. The WSJ article should have explained this: it's the utilities' money, which is why they are suing.)

Obama administration dismantling all nuclear waste options ahead of expert panel

On the NEI blog, Brian Mays makes a point about the White House's nuclear strategies:

How can this review be "thorough" or "comprehensive" when it already excludes possibilities before it has even begun?

http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/2010/01/blue-ribbon-commission-on-americas.html?showComment=1264804130187#c1754247658951101459

I went through the news archives to figure out Obama's nuclear policies. (They're not obvious: he is very political about them, and further he often ignores his own energy advisor, so you can't take Chu's (very open) views as a barometer of administration policy). I think Brian is more correct than he realizes. The Administration has systematically demolished the foundations of the nuclear waste strategies: geologic storage, spent fuel reprocessing, and fast-spectrum reactors.

Reprocessing

I said Obama regularly ignores his Nobelist aide; here's a clear example. Steven Chu strongly advocates reprocessing (recycling of spent fuel for reuse in nuclear reactors; separation and partitioning of non-fuel waste components to reduce their volume). Here for instance is an interview with NEI, alongside John MCCain:

(March 6, 2009)

Chu: I support reprocessing research. I think it’s an important part of the nuclear - [interrupted by McCain]

[...]

Chu: The interim storage of waste – the solidification of waste – is something we can do today. The NRC has said that it can be done safely. That buys us time to formulate a comprehensive plan in how we deal with the nuclear waste. The recycling which I think in the long term is very beneficial - it has the potential for greatly reducing the amount of waste - is something that we have to press on. But the time scale of the recycling development is different - we have a couple of decades quite frankly in my opinion to figure that one out.

[NEI Nuclear Notes] John McCain and Steven Chu on Yucca Mountain

Whereas the White House opposes commercial reprocessing and is dismantling its research. You won't find an official policy in an Obama speech (way too mercurial for that); you will have to browse the Federal Register to figure out what's going on.

(June 29, 2009)

SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE or Department) has decided to cancel the preparation of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0396). [...] Via this notice, DOE announces that it has decided to cancel the GNEP PEIS because it is no longer pursuing domestic commercial reprocessing, which was the primary focus of the prior Administration's domestic GNEP program.

[Federal Register] Notice of Cancellation of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS)

I'll ask the readers whether this is anti-nuclear politics, whether it is partisan politics (because GNEP was a Bush proposal), or whether it is part of the larger "non-proliferation" foreign policy. That third political motivation is that some diplomats view reprocessing as linked with nuclear weapons, therefore the US pushes other countries to ban reprocessing, which the US itself forgoes to appear consistent (foreign policy). As recent examples, the recent "123 agreement" with the United Arab Emirates:

(May 21, 2009)

President Obama has approved an agreement to help build a nuclear energy program in the United Arab Emirates, officials said Wednesday.

The agreement was reached by the administration of President George W. Bush and left for Obama to shepherd through Congress. The new president's team portrays it as a way to prevent Middle Eastern countries from building nuclear weapons under the guise of energy programs.

Under the agreement, the UAE agreed not to enrich uranium to run its nuclear plants, or to reprocess spent fuel, steps that could be used to create material for a bomb. In exchange, the UAE will be allowed to buy fuel and other materials for its nuclear power plants from U.S. businesses.

[Washington Post] U.S. to Help UAE Build Energy Program

Or the policy towards South Korea, which is seeking to develop pyroprocessing (!), but which the US is obstructing:

(February 2, 2010)

The U.S. is unlikely to allow South Korea to reprocess spent nuclear fuel that is piling up in secure storage facilities until a satisfactory solution to the North Korean nuclear problem is found, a report said this week. The matter is a key issue in negotiations between Seoul and Washington on the revision of the Korea-U.S. Atomic Energy Agreement, which expires in 2014.

Fred McGoldrick, a former chief U.S. representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, published the report on prospects for Seoul-Washington negotiations about nuclear energy at the request of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy of the Asia Foundation in the U.S. "It is difficult to imagine that the United States would agree to South Korean pyroprocessing until the North Korean nuclear issue reaches a satisfactory resolution," he wrote.

[Chosun Ilbo] U.S. 'Unlikely to Let S.Korea Reprocess Nuclear Fuel'

Sadly, our nuclear ludditism has global reach.

Fast reactors

Just two weeks ago, the White House' Office of Management and Budget (OMB) barred the national labs from researching fast reactors:

(January 15, 2010)

The White House has proposed barring Energy Department research on fast reactor recycling of nuclear waste and technical support for licensing of small, modular light-water reactors, drawing protests from Energy Secretary Steven Chu that such prohibitions will have broad adverse effects, including hurting the U.S. nuclear industry's renaissance; crimping U.S. ability to influence other countries' fast reactor designs to address proliferation concerns; and taking away nuclear waste disposal options that might be considered by the administration's planned blue-ribbon panel on alternatives to the Yucca Mountain repository.

...

In the letter, obtained by sister publication The Energy Daily, Chu said he "strongly disagree[s] with the policy direction [proposed by OMB] concerning allowable nuclear energy R&D activities."

[Defense Daily, mirrored on Free Republic (sorry)] White House Moves To Restrict DoE Nuclear Research

You may remember that the US national labs, particularly Argonne, developed the Integral Fast Reactor, which was similarly axed by bureaucrats in 1994. The excuse -- just like today's reprocessing politics -- was weapons proliferation. For even more tie-in, the original pyroprocessing chemistry -- the one the US is obstructing today in South Korea -- was developed by Argonne for the IFR.

Geological storage

Yucca mountain. 'nuf said.

So then, in the context of the administration's recent acts, what is this "expert" panel doing? I think it is a rubber-stamping committee to justify these numerous political decisions and actions, after the fact. The political pressure on this panel is obvious (how likely are they to recommend something the Boss just canceled?), and even if it weren't there the committee member has been cherry-picked for their views. The team's geologist, Allison MacFarlane, was chosen because she is the most vocal critic of the Yucca repository; she is there to validate Obama's (and Reid's) political decision. They can rely on her conclusions. The nonproliferation experts (Albert Carnesale, Susan Eisenhower) are there to raise the specter of nuclear war, to frighten reprocessing out of consideration. (I think it's not a coincidence that Carnesale represented the US in the "International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation", 1977-1980, in the Carter administration, when Carter outlawed nuclear reprocessing. This merits research).